IF THERE is to be a new arms race in space, China will be in it. Its belated admission that earlier this month it destroyed one of its own satellites—blowing it to smithereens by slamming a ballistic missile into it over 500 miles (800km) up in space—is China's way of saying that it will cede control of space to no one. The feat itself was not particularly impressive: both the United States and the then Soviet Union carried out similar space tests more than 20 years ago. But shooting down its own satellite shows that China could now blast someone else's out of the sky, too. Putting its marker in the heavens in this way reflects badly on China as a terrestrial power. Yet its poor space etiquette could be turned to advantage.

如果外太空举行新的军备竞赛，中国刚刚取得姗姗来迟的参赛资格：本月初摧毁了一颗自己的卫星——在距地球800千米的外太空，该卫星被一枚弹道导弹射穿而灰飞烟灭——用中国特色的方式宣布称霸太空当仁不让。事件本身并不引人关注：无论是美国还是前苏联，早在20年前就进行过类似的空间测试。但是击落自己的卫星说明中国目前同样可以轰炸别人的天外飞星。里程碑就这样置于九霄云外，中国想成为陆地强国的野心昭然若揭。且其空间教养的缺如可能会变成有利条件。

Satellites are as vulnerable as they are valuable. America and Russia stopped such anti-satellite tests because both stood to lose: each side's eyes-in-the-skies monitored the other's nuclear weapons, helping to avoid awful mishap. These days satellites are used far more widely for communications, terrestrial navigation, crop monitoring and much more. With its provocative test, China has thumbed its nose at the many satellite-dependent countries.

卫星不仅价值连城，且极易受损。美国和俄罗斯都因为代价高昂而停止了这种卫星歼灭测试：一方的“天眼”监视另一方的核武器以防止天灾浩劫。卫星如今广泛应用于通讯、地面导航、农作物监控等等。中国的这项测试如同一根中指竖立在许多视卫星为命根的国家面前。

As a purely practical matter, there are better ways of dealing with redundant satellites. China's way ensures that those smithereens—thousands of bits of debris, large and small—will orbit like bullets in space for years (another reason the Americans and Russians desisted). They may damage other satellites and put space-farers at risk. What irony if China, which takes pride in its own recent manned space flights, were to find its ambitions to put a man on the moon and eventually to build a space station set back someday by the still ricocheting rubble from its own irresponsible action.

报废卫星作为一项纯粹的日常事务，方法其实有很多。中国操作的方式使得卫星残骸——大小不一的数千碎片——会像子弹一样沿轨道运行（这也是美国和俄罗斯金盆洗手的另一原因）。碎片可能会伤害其他卫星并对太空漫游者产生威胁。中国虽然对前不久的载人飞行器引以为傲，一旦发现要把人送上月球并最终建立空间站的雄心壮志却因自己不负责任的举动造成的飞沙走石而告吹的话，那可是够讽刺的。

China evidently calculates that all this is worth it. Its space blast was really aimed at rival America. Satellites not only add to America's already far superior conventional fighting power. These and other space-based sensors also aid the Bush administration's nascent missile-defence plans. If push ever came to shove over Taiwan, China worries that regional defences might help protect the island from the threat of around 900 missiles now pointed at it from the mainland. Meanwhile longer-range defences could blunt the deterrent value of China's rockets (few, but growing in number and being modernised) aimed at America itself.

显然中国精打细算后觉得物有所值。空间爆破行动就是针对劲敌美国。卫星不光使得美国本已遥遥领先的常规武器战斗力更如虎添翼，还和其它空间传感器一同佐助布什幕僚新鲜出炉的导弹防御计划。布什一旦决定罩住台湾，中国担心地区防御措施会帮助台湾岛摆脱从大陆指向的大约900枚导弹的阴霾。与此同时，远程防御使中国瞄准美国的火箭（数量不多但越来越多、越来越先进）的威慑力打了折扣。

For years China has blocked discussion of other issues at the United Nations Conference on Disarmament because America has refused to negotiate a new treaty banning the “weaponisation” of space; the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits only the placing of weapons of mass destruction in space, though with strictures against harmful contamination of space, too. The Bush team counters that there is no arms race in space (officials deny plans to place weapons there), and therefore no need for a new treaty. Both sides are being disingenuous. China's occasional musings about whether defending Taiwan would be worth losing Los Angeles help (along with the antics of North Korea and Iran) to bolster support—and not just in America—for the missile defences that it wants a space treaty to constrain. Yet America's secretive space plans worry even some of its friends, too.

长期以来，由于美国拒绝就一项禁止空间“武器化”的条约展开磋商，中国一直阻止在联合国裁军大会上讨论其他话题；1967年“外太空条约”固然谴责污染太空的有害行为，但只是禁止了在太空放置大规模杀伤性武器。布什帮驳斥说并无所谓空间军备竞赛（官员否认在太空设置武器的计划），因此并无拟订新条约之必要。双方都缺乏诚意。中国动辄思忖，保卫台湾是否值得失掉洛城的帮助（况且鉴于北朝鲜和伊朗的乖戾）换来更多方面——不止来自美国——对导弹防御的支持，因此才想出需要一项空间条约来约束。然而美国暗地里搞的空间计划甚至也令其盟友如坐针毡。

China's anti-satellite test makes a race to weaponise space more likely. Contacts between American and Chinese space scientists, broken off some years ago after accusations of Chinese spying and only recently tentatively resumed, are likely to shrivel once more. That is a pity, since co-operation can mitigate the suspicions that go with competition.

中国进行的卫星歼灭测试使得空间武器化竞赛的战幕几近拉开。中美两方空间专家的接洽在几年前由于对中方间谍活动的指责而中断，只是最近才有试探性的续接，可惜马上又有起[缶只]儿倾向。竞赛与猜度齐飞，化解靠伙伴合作。

A better way upward/弃暗投明，居危思安

An arms race in space would leave everyone, including its “winner”, worse off. Likewise, insisting on a treaty or nothing, with interminable debates over the legal definition of what is a space weapon—just something that can be fired or also the sophisticated bits and pieces that help find and track targets too?—won't stop the emerging space competition turning ugly. Better to try something more modest: a code of responsible conduct between existing space powers that emerging ones could also sign up to.

空间军备竞赛的结果是所有人得不偿失，连“胜者”也不例外。同样，纠缠于某一条约或什么，无休止地在法律层面上争论空间武器的定义——是可以放枪的，还是用来盯梢的复杂精细的玩意？——不会阻止邪端初现的空间竞赛愈演愈烈。还是尽量中庸为好：现有太空强国之间的负责任行为准则同样适用于崭露头角的小荷。

Such a code proposed by the Washington-based Stimson Centre, a think-tank, working with a group of non-government experts from China, Russia, Canada, France and Japan, would rule out interfering with other nations' space systems, including using lasers to harm satellites (another trick several, including China, have practised), and avoid activities that create long-lasting space debris. It would also provide advance notice of space manoeuvres that might get in others' way

该准则由“智囊团”斯廷森驻华盛顿中心和来自中国、俄罗斯、加拿大、法国和日本的非政府专家组共同提出，将会严禁对其他国家空间系统的妨碍行为，包括使用激光损坏卫星（该伎俩已被中国等若干国家用过），生成旷日持久的空间残骸的活动应避免举行。还会提供空间演习预先通告，省得挡了人家的道。

America is still more powerful in space. China has shown what damage it can do. Their competition won't end there. But there are surely better ways to manage it.

在太空领域，美国的实力还是更胜一筹，而中国的“破力”已经可见一斑。竞赛不会就此打住，事态发展我们拭目以待。

http://economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8592950